Report Overview

100% EVs by 2050

Electronic Vehicles (EVs) in Australia are forecast to reach 100% of new car sales within 15-20 years. EVs are an alternative to the internal combustion engine (or ICE) and use electric motors or traction motors for propulsion. ICE vehicles typically run on petrol or diesel and currently make up nearly 100% of the Australian private vehicle market. EVs are charged typically from the grid and as such source energy from both renewable and fossil fuel sources. Reduction in technology costs and the mass production will result in EVs having lower upfront and running costs which will lead to mass market adoption and ultimately replace the entire commercial market for private vehicles.

In this report, we review the various factors driving the uptake of EVs, the way in which EVs will be charged, and the potential impact on residential homes’ production and consumption of electricity. As the market moves towards a distributed renewable market, EVs will increasingly be charged by cheaper renewable energy during off peak times when renewables are abundant in supply.

We also review the cost of charging EVs (versus the equivalent cost for an ICE car) under various scenarios where a household charges its EV using grid electricity and using their own solar panels and batteries.

The ultimate impact and timing of Electronic Vehicles (EV) in Australia remains uncertain in respect of energy load requirements and timing of such impact. In this report, we review the various factors driving the uptake of EVs, the way in which EVs will be charged, and the potential impact on residential homes’ production and consumption of electricity. We also review the cost of charging EVs (versus the equivalent cost for an ICE car) under various scenarios where a household charges its EV using grid electricity and using their own solar panels and batteries.

Contents

Introduction

Adoption of EVs in Australia

• Key Drivers
• Key Barriers

Adoption Forecasts

Side by side analysis: EV versus ICE

Implications for power generation and the network or grid

Charging EVs in Australia

Impact on grid requirements

EVs as a backup battery for the house

Conclusion

List of charts/tables

Figure 1. Summary of forecasts for EV uptake

Figure 2. AEMO and Seba forecasts for EV uptake

Figure 3. Energeia forecast for EV uptake

Figure 4. Illustrative example: EV versus Petroleum vehicle costs

Figure 5. Peak load based on standard versus time-of-use tariffs

Figure 6. EV uptake effects on electricity demand in Germany

Figure 7. Using car battery to supply energy (illustration)

Figure 8. EV and ICE comparison