Report Overview
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2021 spectrum auction: Uncertainty prevails (UK)
- PublisherEnders Analysis.
- Publish Date December 9, 2020
- Sector Mobile and Wireless Technology, Telecom, UK.
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COVID, potential consolidation, implications for ALF pricing and non-contiguous blocks have conspired to make the forthcoming second 5G spectrum auction a highly complicated affair.
Contents
Executive summary
Two-stage approach raises significant issues
Either way, competitive playing field to level
Consolidation prospects to have little impact
Complications create uncertainty over proceeds
Who’s likely to want what
Why H3G may hold back
Historic prices not necessarily a strong guide
Spectrum limits unlikely to be a constraining factor
Non-contiguous spectrum causes inefficiencies and risk
Ofcom negotiation process may not resolve the issue
How realistic is spectrum trading?
Not all spectrum is equal
Consolidation issues to be put to one side
List of charts/tables
Figure 1: Spectrum available in the 2021 auction
Figure 2: Spectrum holding by operator (MHz)
Figure 3: UK MNO market shares, 2019
Figure 4: Reserve price and historic market value of spectrum for auction
Figure 5: Reserve and historic prices by operator on reasonable spectrum allocation scenario
Figure 6: Reasonable scenario of spectrum distribution and spectrum caps
Figure 7: Spectrum allocation in the 3.4-3.8 GHz band
Figure 8: Operator potential shares of spectrum and capacity post-auction
Figure 9: Operator shares of capacity
Figure 10: Mobile network utilisation by operator