Report Overview
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Baby steps to recovery – European mobile in Q4 2019
- PublisherEnders Analysis.
- Publish Date April 7, 2020
- Sector Mobile, Telecom.
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European mobile service revenue growth improved by 1ppt to -1.2% primarily as a consequence of diminished competitive intensity in France. Trends elsewhere were largely flat
The mobile sector is playing an important role in tackling COVID-19 and is likely to be relatively resilient in the short term with a broadly neutral financial impact. Longer term it will be exposed to the fortunes of the economy
There are reasons to believe that the improvement in trends evidenced in the last quarter may continue as churn reduction takes the heat out of some markets, cuts to intra-EU calls annualises out and for most countries, end-of-contract notifications will only begin to impact in 2021
Contents
Executive summary—baby steps to recovery
France boosts the European trend—flat-lining elsewhere
Vodafone subscriber acquisition rate scaled back
Vodafone moving away from German convergence strategy?
COVID-19 network impact: challenging, but some resilience likely
COVID-19 financial impact: resilience again likely
Mobile operators gifts to customers to assist with COVID-19 impact
5G roll-out likely to be somewhat slowed by COVID-19
Revenue trends driven by shifts in with-handset bundles and means of distribution
IFRS 15 revenue trend distortions
UK operator performance: neither service nor total revenue growth are perfect measures
German operator performance: neither service nor total revenue growth are perfect measures
Huawei restrictions very mixed
Intra-EU calls cuts a drag for one more full quarter
Infrastructure sharing gains in popularity
End-of-contract notifications a drag for most through 2021
UK—no real uptick
UK—nearing the end of the headwinds
France—convincing bounce back
Germany—O2 leads on subscribers but revenue growth dips
Italy—continued shift to value hinders the recovery
Spain—a slow but steady recovery begins to emerge
List of charts/tables
Reported mobile revenue growth—top 5 European markets
Service revenue growth by market
Service revenue growth by operator group
Mobile service revenue growth versus peers
Contract net adds in top 4 European markets
T-Mobile versus Vodafone contract ARPU growth
Change in customer lifetime contribution due to converged bundle
Anecdotal evidence of changes in data traffic
Peak complaints about network service per 15 minutes in the UK
Europe ‘top 5’GDP vs service revenue growth
Mobile operators gifts to customers to assist with COVID-19 impact
Recent and forthcoming spectrum auctions
Spectrum auction results in Germany
IFRS 15 effect of indirect and direct mobile contract distribution
UK operator performance: neither service nor total revenue growth are perfect measures
German operator performance: neither service nor total revenue growth are perfect measures
Approaches to Huawei across Europe
Intra-EU calling prices –Euro cents per minute prior to cuts
Vodafone tower/network share deals
Potential drag from out-of-contract customers spinning down
Service revenue growth
Contract net additions (000)
Reported mobile service revenue growth by operator
Outlook for change in mobile trends in 2019 by operator