Report Overview
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Bopping along the bottom: European mobile in Q3 2019
- PublisherEnders Analysis.
- Publish Date January 9, 2020
- Sector Europe, Mobile, Telecom.
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European mobile revenues remain decidedly in decline this quarter at -2% – a slight worsening since Q2 as the full force of cuts to intra EU calls hits
There are signs that dual brand strategies may be reaching their useful limit as erstwhile premium customers shift to value
There is scope for some trends to slowly improve from here, although end of contract notifications will impact all markets before the end of 2020, with the UK first off the blocks in Q1
Contents
Executive summary – bopping along the bottom
Reported and underlying revenue growth
- Still decidedly in decline
- North/South divide narrows further
- Vodafone revenue growth deteriorates but subscribers recover
- Intra-EU calls drag doubled this quarter
- Vodafone convergence strategy a major drag on German ARPU
- A staggered start for 5G with French auction scheduled for Spring
- Infrastructure sharing gains in popularity
- End-of-contract notifications a likely drag during 2020
Country analysis
- UK – worst performance in six years
- UK outlook remains challenging
- France – growth a bit tempered
- Germany – slips into decline as O2 resurgence continues
- Italy – market shifts to value
- Spain – Long, slow road to recovery for Vodafone
Appendix
- Mobile termination rates (MTR) impact de minimis
- Reported mobile service revenue
- Consolidation and convergence timeline
List of charts/tables
Reported mobile revenue growth – top 5 European markets
Service revenue growth by market
Service revenue growth by operator group – top 5 European markets
Drivers of 2018 trends in major EU mobile markets
Mobile service revenue growth in Northern and Southern markets
Mobile service revenue growth vs peers in top 4 European markets
Vodafone contract net adds in top 4 European markets
Intra-EU calling prices Euro cents per minute prior to cuts in May 2019
T-Mobile vs Vodafone Germany year on year ARPU growth
Change in customer lifetime contribution due to converged bundle
Recent and forthcoming spectrum auctions
Spectrum auction results in Germany
Vodafone tower/network share deals
Potential drag from out-of-contract customers spinning down
Service revenue growth
Contract net additions (000)
Reported mobile service revenue growth by operator
Outlook for change in mobile trends in 2019/2020 by operator
Service revenue growth, reported and excluding VAT impact
Contract net additions (000)
Service revenue growth by operator
Service revenue growth, reported and excluding MTR impact
Contract net additions (000)
Service revenue growth by operator
Reported service revenue growth
Total subscriber net additions (000)
Service revenue growth by operator
Service revenue growth, reported and excluding MTR impact
Contract net additions (000)
Service revenue growth by operator
Regulatory impact – top 5 European markets
European MTR rates (Euro cents)
Regulatory impact by market
Reported mobile service revenue
European MNO consolidation timeline