Report Overview


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BT UK – COVID-19 hit, fibre promise


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GAIN ACCESS

BT’s first full quarter under the shadow of COVID-19 revealed a mix of negative impacts not entirely as predicted, by ourselves or indeed BT itself. The suspension of sport certainly had an impact on BT Sport revenue, but only about half of what we had feared (less than £50 million versus around £100 million), and Openreach was also relatively unaffected, perhaps having returned to full service levels quicker than anticipated. There was a strong negative impact on B2B revenue, but this was much more focused on SMEs than large corporates, with Global’s financials largely unaffected (so far), and mobile (which BT had not specifically warned about) was hit hard across consumer and (especially) B2B, with the results of the other mobile operators suggesting that the effect was market-wide.

Contents

COVID-19 overshadowing fibre progress

Group financials taking the COVID-19 hit

Broadband volumes pretty solid, may improve further

Fixed ARPU hit by sport, but not by much

Mobile hit hard, might get worse, but market-wide issue

Openreach more solid than expected

Full fibre moving ahead on all fronts

What does the full fibre future look like? Pretty good.

Guidance very cautious due to B2B

List of charts/tables

Figure 1: BT Group revenue and EBITDA growth

Figure 2: Revenue growth

Figure 3: BT Group revenue and EBITDA growth

Figure 4: Year on year absolute change in EBITDA (£m)

Figure 5: Broadband net adds (000)

Figure 6: Consumer fixed monthly churn

Figure 7: BT Consumer fixed operating performance

Figure 8: Broadband entry level dual-play pricing, new customers (£/month)

Figure 9: Broadband high speed pricing, new customers (£/month)

Figure 10: BT’s mobile operating performance

Figure 11: Reported organic mobile service revenue growth

Figure 12: Openreach revenue growth

Figure 13: Openreach ultrafast coverage premises net adds (000)

Figure 14: Openreach full fibre build plans

Figure 15: Selected Openreach copper/fibre pricing, £/month

Figure 16: Virgin Media versus Openreach pricing, £/month

Figure 17: BT Group guidance and results