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Google.cn shutdown could cost $2-4bn to 2015 - Venture Insights

Report Overview

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Google.cn shutdown could cost $2-4bn to 2015

PublisherEnders Analysis.
Publish Date March 21, 2010
Sector Digital Media, Fixed Line (Internet and Voice).
Company Google.

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Google is almost certain to close its China site, Google.cn, foregoing much of the revenue and potential upside from the world’s largest internet population and fifth biggest market for internet advertising.

Google.cn has performed reasonably well to date, taking about 20% of spend on paid search compared to c65% for market leader Baidu. We would expect Google’s future performance to improve but not to displace Baidu.

We estimate the revenue foregone over 2010-15 from closing Google.cn to be between $2-4bn or 8.5-17% of FY2009 revenue, but it could be far higher if the Renminbi were to appreciate substantially versus the dollar.