Report Overview


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New Zealand Telco Market Outlook


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We expect the overall retail telco market to remain almost flat (2019-2023 CAGR 0.4%) with mobile growth driven by a move to post-paid plans and 4G/5G to offset the structural decline in fixed voice.  Total retail revenues will reach NZ$5.5bn in 2023
With UFB deployment nearly complete and the launch of 5G and Hyperfibre, we expect a rise in competitive intensity as players look to capture share across a broader set of product offerings
Fixed voice continues its structural decline as subscribers shun the landline and migrate away from standalone fixed voice services to mobile bundles and broadband + VOIP bundles
The UFB rollout is on track and 79% of the population can access UFB as of September 2019. The Government’s target is to make UFB available to 87% of the population by the end of 2022
The NZ Government recently announced a set of reforms including a move towards utility-style regulation, copper deregulation in areas where UFB is available, and increased oversight over quality and reliability of broadband services

Contents

Executive summary

UFB – 79% population coverage by September 2019

Rollout progress – UFB ahead of its targets

Telco market forecast by vertical

Retail telco market forecast by vertical

Mobile forecasts

Fixed Broadband forecasts

Fixed Broadband demand drivers

Need for speed

Revenue market share of key players

Convergence with Power

MVNOs in NZ

What role for 5G?

Hyperfibre by Chorus

Chorus 1HFY20 financial update

Spark 1HFY20 financial update

List of charts/tables

Fig. 1: Retail telco market revenue growth rates by segment

Fig 2: Target – 99.8% population coverage by the end of 2023

Fig 3: Take-up rates – UFB vs NBN

Fig 4: UFB Households and businesses able to connect in 000’s

Fig. 5: Total Telco market revenue by vertical

Fig. 6: Total Telco market revenue by vertical (NZ$mn)

Fig 7: Mobile forecast

Fig 8: Fixed Broadband forecasts

Fig 9: Monthly broadband data consumption per connection on Chorus network

Fig 10: Share of broadband connections by data cap on Chorus network

Fig 11: Chorus UFB speed mix

Fig 12: NBN speed mix

Fig 13: Retail telco revenue market shares

Fig 14: Examples of utility and telco convergence (NZ)

Fig 15: Mobile service convergence comparison

Fig 16: MVNOs and sub-brands in NZ

Fig 17: Fixed broadband customers willing to shift to wireless broadband

Fig 18: Consumer willingness to move to 5G

Fig 19: Chorus Hyperfibre rollout plan

Fig 20: Income statement

Fig 21: Connections

Fig 22: Income statement

Fig 23: Connection mix by input type