Report Overview


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Trends shoring up – UK mobile market in Q1 2020


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GAIN ACCESS
The slow recovery in UK mobile continued this quarter with a 1ppt improvement in service revenue trends
In spite of operator guidance to the negative, the sector is likely to remain relatively resilient in the face of COVID-19 in the short term, with its various impacts affecting operators differently depending on their business mix
The outlook is relatively robust with the impact of some regulatory initiatives muted by lockdown measures and the annualization of some financial drags from the middle of next quarter

Contents

Market and competitive trends

Headwinds starting to annualise

Appendix

List of charts/tables

Reported mobile service revenue growth

UK mobile market net adds (000s)

Reported mobile service revenue growth by operator

Reported total mobile revenue growth by operator

BT/EE total revenue and service revenue growth (IFRS 15)

O2 totalrevenue and service revenue growth (IFRS 15)

Vodafone total revenue and service revenue growth (IFRS 15)

H3G total revenue and service revenue growth (IFRS 15)

IFRS 15 effect of indirect and direct mobile contract distribution

Contract net additions (000s)

Annualised contract churn

Contract ARPU growth

SIM-only share of contract subscriptions

‘Sweet spot’bundle with iPhone 6s/7/8/XR/11

SIM-only pricing by data allowance (GB)

12-month, SIM-only unlimited data pricing (£/month)

EBITDA margin, last 12 months

Capex, last 6 months (£m)

Cashflow (EBITDA-capex) margin, last 12 months (£m)

Europe average mobile network speeds (Mbps)

Peak complaints per 15 minutes by mobile operator

COVID-19 related financial guidance changes

UK underlying service revenue vs GDP growth

Huawei’s market shares

Residential market shares (including pay TV)

Total market shares (including pay TV)

Potential drag from loss of ‘sleepers’

Discounts offered by each operator to with-handset customers out of contract for more than three months

Estimated drag from proposed discounts

Timing and impact of out-of-contract notifications and discounts

5G launch dates and plans

Spare capacity per operator (PB per year)

Timeline of UK mobile capacity

Spectrum holding by operator (MHz)

UK mobile coverage (% of landmass)

Outlook for change in mobile trends in 2019 by operator

Operators’restrictions on out-of-bundle spending before new regulation

MNO price increases in 2020

RPI-linked price increases in 2018, 2019, and 2020

Annual licence fees (£m per MHz per annum)

EBITDA drag from ALF change (excluding H3G 5G spectrum)

Bolt-on offers for international calls from mobiles