Report Overview

UK pandemic economy – The uncertain road ahead

In April, the first full month of lockdown, UK’s GDP fell by 20.4% month-on-month, the steepest decline on record, with further reduction expected in May. On 15 June, some non-essential premises re-open, but activity for the rest of the year will be depressed by social distancing—the UK’s recession in 2020 is certain to be the steepest on record

The UK’s furlough scheme avoided the massive loss of jobs and supported worker incomes. A steep rise in the unemployment rate is expected when furlough ends in the autumn, judging by the US experience

The UK’s recession is in step with its equally impaired trading partners, melting the UK’s trade. The UK must also contend with the economic impact of the exit from the Single Market transition, as of 2021

Contents

Expenditure at all time low

SME universe at risk

Record high employment set to collapse

Global trade plummets

Government deficit climbs to highest on record

List of charts/tables

Figure 1: Comfort of returning to “normal”

Figure 2: UK consumer confidence index

Figure 3: Average monthly value of retail sales excl. fuel (£m)

Figure 4: Monthly change in GDP by component (%)

Figure 5: Private sector employment by industry and size of company, 2019 (%)

Figure 6: UK businesses incorporations and dissolutions, Q1 2019 vs Q1 2020

Figure 7: Government business support schemes

Figure 8: Measures taken by businesses to cope with the impact of COVID-19

Figure 9: World merchandise trade volume indexed growth (2015 = 100)