Report Overview
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Vodafone: Bright spots and low lights

- PublisherEnders Analysis.
- Publish Date November 23, 2020
- Sector Europe, Fixed Line (Internet and Voice), Internet, Telecom, UK, vodafone.
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Contents
Some bright spots, some low lights
A mixed picture in Europe
When organic isn’t real
EBITDA hit hard by roaming
Vodafone expects a positive ‘organic’ EBITDA trend in H2
Mobile better but fixed a very mixed bag
Towers IPO imperative to maintain leverage
UK: revenue decline tempered, EBITDA hit
Service revenue trends paint a distorted picture
H3G stepping up pricing aggression
Bigger picture is cause for optimism
Germany: much to prove
Fixed still struggling for momentum
Germany mobile less exposed to roaming
EBITDA reasonable, synergy boost remains to be seen
Italy: the punches keep coming
Fixed remains subdued with disappointing broadband net adds
Iliad pressure on mobile ramped up again
EBITDA down by 11%, margin slips by 6ppts
Spain: an encouraging bounceback
Fixed benefits from demand for high-speed and drama-focused TV
Mobile shakes off lockdown and accelerates shift to unlimited
EBITDA—positive but more recovery to come
List of charts/tables
Figure1: Q1 to Q2 service revenue progression—Vodafone ‘organic’ definition
Figure 2: Service revenue growth in Europe
Figure 3: ‘Organic’ and Enders’ preferred service revenue growth
Figure 4: ‘Organic’ and Enders’ preferred EBITDA growth
Figure 5: RoW organic EBITDA growth and growth in Euro terms
Figure 6: Organic EBITDA growth
Figure 7: Organic service revenue growth
Figure 8: Mobile service revenue growth in Europe
Figure 9: Vodafone fixed service revenue growth in the ‘top 4’ markets
Figure 10: Vodafone’s forecasted use of cash (€m)
Figure 11: Vodafone forecast Net Debt to EBITDA scenarios
Figure 12: UK operational and financial metrics
Figure 13: UK fixed performance
Figure 14: UK contract net additions (000)
Figure 15: UK mobile service revenue growth by operator
Figure 16: ‘Sweet spot’ bundle with iPhone 6s/7/8/XR/11/12
Figure 17: SIM-only pricing by data allowance(GB) ––July 2020 (£/month)
Figure 18: SIM-only pricing by data allowance(GB)—November 2020 (£/month)
Figure19: 12-month, SIM-only unlimited data bundle pricing (£/month)
Figure 20: 18-24-month, SIM-only unlimited data pricing (£/month)
Figure 21: Germany operational and financial metrics
Figure 22: Germany fixed performance
Figure 23: Germany contract net additions (000)
Figure 24: German operator contract ARPU growth
Figure 25: Italy operational and financial metrics
Figure 26: Italy fixed performance
Figure 27: Italy service revenue growth by operator
Figure 28: Italy total subscriber net additions (000)
Figure 29: Spain operational and financial metrics
Figure 30: Spain fixed performance
Figure 31: Spain service revenue growth by operator